Study Questions NFL Draft’s Ability to Predict Player Success

A new study has found little evidence that the NFL’s draft order accurately predicts player performance, raising questions about how teams value draft picks and evaluate talent.

Researchers analyzed data from 2,544 players selected in the NFL Draft between 2011 and 2020 and found that players chosen earlier in the draft generally did not outperform those selected later, particularly within the same draft round.

The study, published in The Sport Journal, compared draft position, draft value chart ratings and rookie salaries with player performance during their first four NFL seasons. Researchers used player data from Pro Football Reference and performance grades from Pro Football Focus.

The findings suggest that draft position was not a reliable predictor of performance and career length for players selected in the fourth and fifth rounds. The study also found that teams that traded down to acquire additional draft picks generally realized better player performance than teams that traded up, a result that runs counter to conventional draft valuation models.

“The NFL’s current valuation system doesn’t appear to align with eventual player outcomes,” said Dennis Shaffer, a psychology professor at The Ohio State University and the study’s lead author.

The NFL Draft consists of seven rounds, with teams selecting in reverse order of the previous season’s standings. Conventional wisdom holds that earlier picks are more valuable because they provide access to superior talent.

Shaffer said the draft remains inherently subjective because teams evaluate players differently and often prioritize specific positional needs.

Researchers cautioned that the findings do not mean draft position is irrelevant. Rather, the study suggests that the relationship between draft position and future performance may be weaker than commonly assumed.

The analysis also found that while higher draft picks receive larger rookie contracts, lower-selected players who perform well can match or exceed the career earnings of higher-drafted peers by remaining in the league longer.

The study concludes that NFL teams may benefit from revisiting the trade value charts and evaluation models that currently guide draft decisions.

Ryanne E. Shaffer, an incoming undergraduate student at Ohio State, co-authored the study.